Super Saturday
Posted by Brian on March 8, 2008
The final Saturday in the college basketball regular season usually provides us with a lot of drama. This year looks to be no exception.
Game of the day: #1 North Carolina at #6 Duke 9pm/ESPN
For the final week of the season, the Tar Heels are back to where they started the season: the #1 spot in the rankings. The Carolina defense is suspect, but this team puts up points faster than any team in the nation. Duke won the first edition of college basketball’s greatest rivalry for 2008, but they have been shaky of late. With Ty Lawson back, I think North Carolina finds a way to win at Cameron Indoor to validate the #1 ranking.
Big East Decider: #12 Louisville at #11 Georgetown 12pm/CBS
Louisville won the first meeting, a defensive struggle which saw Rick Pitino break out an all white suit for the school’s “white out” event. The ‘Ville has won nine games in a row since losing to UConn on January 28, making them one of (if not the) hottest teams in the country. Of Louisville’s six losses, four of them have come on the road or at a neutral site (BYU, Purdue, Seton Hall, UConn). I picked the Hoyas to win the Big East over Louisville when the season started so I can’t go back on that now. Expect this game to be played in the 50s with neither team getting into a groove offensively. Low scoring slugfest type games usually favor the home team. I don’t think this game will be an exception. Georgetown will take the Big East regular season title around 2pm.
Teams that would be well advised to win:
West Virginia- The Mountaineers can finish at 11-7 in the Big East with a win at St. John’s. This could be an ugly game with bad shooting on both sides, but WVU should win. Don’t discount St. John’s though, as they face what amounts to a must-win situation in order to qualify for the Big East Tournament.
Miami- I think the ‘Canes are in, but a loss at Florida State today could cause some anxiety. I expect that to happen.
UAB- The Blazers are in with a win at Memphis. It’s as simple as that. Will it happen? Nope.
Baylor- A tough game at Texas Tech closes the regular season for the Bears. I think they’re on the good side of the bubble, but a win here could all but lock up a bid. Texas Tech is as unpredictable as they come, so your guess is as good as mine in this one.
St. Joe’s- A huge win over Xavier on Thursday cured a bit of the trouble started with a home loss to Temple last Sunday. Winning at Dayton today would put them on the good side of the bubble at 10-6 in the A-10.
Dayton- They must beat St. Joe’s to stay in the NCAA picture. Period.
Oklahoma- Must avoid the bad home loss to Missouri. It shouldn’t be a problem, but you never know in the Big XII.
Mississippi- Playing at Georgia is never easy, and the Rebels must win this game to have any chance at a bid. 7-9 in the SEC is probably not enough, but they would have 21 wins overall with a win here. A run in the SEC Tournament could put them back in the mix, but they have to win this game first.
Kansas State- Beasley’s team is slowly (and quietly) drifting towards the bubble. It’s never a sure win when playing Iowa State in Ames, so KSU needs to put forth a solid effort to get the win. It won’t be a walk in the park. They’re in for sure with a win, but they become questionable with a loss. Will 19-11 (9-7) be enough? 9-7 in the Big XII this year is very good (top rated conference in RPI), but I think they’ll need at least one at the conference tournament just to be sure. So the plan for Kansas State is simple: one win (today or next week) and they’re in.
Syracuse- The Orange got a possibly season-saving win at Seton Hall on Wednesday, now they need to follow that up with a strong performance at home against a good Marquette team. Marquette can’t get a Big East Tournament bye, so all they’re playing for is NCAA seeding. This is a great opportunity for Syracuse to get to 9-9 in Big East play, and I like them at home in this one. Still, they’ll need a win or two in New York next week.
Texas A&M- The Aggies can clinch a bid with a win over Kansas today, but a loss (more likely) would drop them to 8-8 in Big XII play. With 22 wins overall, they’re probably in. However, a lot of those wins were against not-so-great competition.
Arizona State- Please don’t lose to Oregon State. Just don’t. That would be bad and embarrassing.
Arkansas- The Hogs need to avoid the bad home loss to Auburn, but I think they’ve done enough to get in even if they lose. Why make it a tougher decision though? Win.
Rhode Island- Another team facing a must win. Rhody has to beat Charlotte at home just to get to 8-8 in the A-10. From there, they’ll need at least two wins at the conference tournament just to have a chance. A good non-conference season has been destroyed by horrible play down the stretch.
Villanova- Villanova faces a suddenly tougher game at a rejuvenated Providence team tonight. With a win, the Wildcats get to 9-9 in the Big East with a chance to make the NCAA’s. A loss drops them to 8-10 and then they’re probably done.
Houston- They absolutely must win at UTEP. That’s not easy, but they have to do it in order to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament.
Oregon- Oregon faces a shaky Arizona team at home tonight. They’re favored, but I think Arizona will come to play. A win gets the Ducks, left for dead a week ago, back to 9-9 in the Pac 10 and right in the middle of the at-large discussion.
Arizona- The ‘Cats are a very interesting case. A win probably seals a bid because of their strength of schedule and a 9-9 conference record, but a loss makes things interesting. I think they’d get in at 8-10, especially given how weak the bubble is and how good their SOS is, but you’re always playing with fire when you go under .500 in the league. If they lose to Oregon, they better win a game or two in Los Angeles next week.
Creighton- Beating Drake in the MVC semis will turn some heads and possibly get them back into the discussion 22-9. Of course, Creighton could beat Drake and then win the MVC Tournament and get in anyway.
Virginia Commonwealth- VCU would fall onto the bubble with a loss to Towson in the Colonial quarters. They better not let that happen.
