With less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, it’s crunch time.
St. Joe’s 17-8 (8-4 A-10): RPI: 43, SOS: 82. Quality wins: @ Massachusetts, vs. Villanova, @ Rhode Island. Bad losses: vs. Holy Cross, @ Duquesne, vs. La Salle.
The Hawks are looking better after stealing a huge road win at Rhode Island on Sunday. The numbers look good, but the overall resume is a bit lacking. They should beat St. Louis and Temple at home, then they have a huge opportunity against a quality Xavier team at home on March 6. Last game is at Dayton. 3-1 down the stretch, plus one A-10 tourney win should be enough.
Massachusetts 18-9 (7-6 A-10): RPI: 37, SOS: 45. Quality wins: @ Syracuse, @ Rhode Island. Bad losses: @ Northern Iowa, @ St. Louis, vs. Fordham.
UMass is 7-6 against the top 100. Not many bubble teams can say they are over .500 against the top 100 this season, which speaks to the overall mediocrity of the bubble this season. The bad losses give me a reason to hesitate, but UMass should be there on Selection Sunday, provided they don’t have any major slip ups to close the season. 21-9 (10-6) is very possible with the soft remaining schedule.
Rhode Island 20-8 (6-7 A-10): RPI: 56, SOS: 99. Quality wins: @ Syracuse. Bad losses: @ St. Louis.
URI has lost four in a row and five of six overall, and looks to be in big time trouble right now. I had them in my last bracket, but they are probably on the outside looking in after a home loss to St. Joe’s on Sunday. The Rams must win out (@ GW, @ La Salle, vs. Charlotte) to get to 9-7 in league play, and hopefully win a game or two in the A-10 tourney.
Dayton 17-9 (5-8 A-10): RPI: 39, SOS: 26. Quality wins: @ Louisville, vs. Pittsburgh. Bad losses: @ Richmond, @ George Washington, vs. Duquesne, @ La Salle.
Dayton is a fringe case at this point, holding on to decent computer numbers and falling back on non-conference wins against Big East teams. 5-8 in any league won’t get it done, so the Flyers must win out (@ Fordham, @ St. Bonaventure, vs. St. Joe’s), and win at least two games in the A-10 tournament. Too many bad losses, no quality wins in conference play and losing 8 of 11 games has all but knocked Dayton off the bubble.
Virginia Tech 16-11 (7-6 ACC): RPI: 64, SOS: 51. Quality wins: @ Maryland. Bad losses: @ Penn State, @ Old Dominion, @ Richmond.
I don’t think Virginia Tech is in play for the tournament, but 7-6 in a major conference (ranked #1 in RPI) deserves a look. The Hokies swept Maryland, but there isn’t much else on the resume to brag about. Va Tech is 0-5 against the top 50, and 4-8 vs. the top 100. With a non-conference RPI of 102 and a road/neutral record of 6-9, I don’t see them having much of a chance on Selection Sunday. Things could change if they beat BC and Wake at home, and then win at Clemson to close the season.
Maryland 17-11 (7-6 ACC): RPI: 66, SOS: 18. Quality wins: @ North Carolina. Bad losses: vs. Boston College, vs. Ohio, vs. American.
I really don’t see why everyone has Maryland in their projected brackets. In my opinion, the Terps are hanging on by a thread with their win in Chapel Hill last month. Besides that game, there are no quality wins on the resume. Combine that with a home loss to a down BC team, as well as brutal home losses to mid-majors American and Ohio, and I really don’t see a strong case for Maryland. The SOS number is good, but you have to win games against quality teams to be worthy of a bid to the NCAA Tournament. I feel Maryland must win out in order to keep its slim hopes alive. The game at Wake Forest on Thursday could be the final nail in the coffin if they lose.
Miami 18-7 (6-6 ACC):RPI: 25, SOS: 36. Quality wins: @ Mississippi State, vs. Clemson, vs. Duke. Bad losses: vs. Winthrop, vs. Florida State.
This is what taking care of business looks like. Left for dead at 14-7 (2-6) on February 6, the Canes have reeled off four straight wins, including a win over Duke, to get back on the right side of the bubble. The computer numbers are very strong, as are the quality wins on the resume. The only reason I included FSU as a bad loss is because it was at home. While Florida State isn’t a bad team, NCAA Tournament teams should beat teams like FSU at home. Miami can solidify themselves with a win at Clemson on Wednesday. They should win home games against Virginia and BC, and then a trip to rival FSU closes the regular season. Even at 8-8, I think Miami gets in provided they win a game in the ACC tourney.
Wake Forest 16-9 (6-6 ACC): RPI: 62, SOS 77. Quality wins: vs. BYU, vs. Miami, vs. Duke. Bad losses: @ Georgia, vs. Georgia Tech.
Wake is basically a fringe case, but the opportunity to finish 8-8 or 10-6 in the ACC is there. They should be favored against Maryland and NC State at home, but roadies at Ga Tech and Va Tech could be tricky. If they win the home games and split the road games, the Deacs could have a legitimate case come March 16. The computer numbers are poor, so that certainly will go against them. 6-7 record against the top 100 does help a little compared to other bubble teams, but it’s certainly not great. Their downfall will most likely be the 2-8 road record. Still, how can you not root for this team down the stretch considering all they’ve been through over the last year? It’s Dino Gaudio’s team now, but you can’t ignore the impact the late Skip Prosser had on their success this season. It’s been both tangible and inspirational.
Oklahoma 18-9 (6-6 Big 12): RPI: 28, SOS: 6. Quality wins: vs. Arkansas, vs. Gonzaga, @ West Virginia (Charleston), @ Baylor. Bad losses: @ Colorado.
With strong computer numbers, four quality wins and only one bad loss, Oklahoma looks to be in the field. The only hesitation is the 6-6 Big 12 record, but the Sooners have a manageable schedule down the stretch (@ Nebraska, vs. Texas A&M, @ Oklahoma State, vs. Missouri). Taking care of business or finishing 2-2 at worst should be enough to get a berth.
Baylor 17-8 (6-6 Big 12): RPI: 34, SOS: 30. Quality wins: vs. Notre Dame (neutral), @ Texas A&M, vs. Kansas State. Bad losses: none.
The Bears got their must win over Kansas State on Saturday, now they look to keep it rolling and go 3-1 down the stretch. Avoiding the bad loss at Colorado is essential, then they get Missouri and Texas A&M at home. They should beat Missouri, and they already have beaten A&M (the 5 OT game). They end at Texas Tech, a tough place to play but a very winnable game. Prior to beating KSU, Baylor had lost six of seven games after starting the season 15-2 (4-0). Going 3-1 down the stretch and picking up a win in the Big 12 Tournament will probably be enough for Scott Drew’s team, though they are just 5-8 against the top 100 as of today. 7-5 road/neutral record is a positive.
Texas A&M 19-7 (6-6 Big 12): RPI: 47, SOS: 78. Quality wins: vs. Texas. Bad losses: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Nebraska.
A&M has lost three in a row and 6 of 11 to fall onto the bubble. The computer numbers aren’t great, so they need to get some wins down the stretch. It will be tough, as they will be underdogs in road games against Oklahoma and Baylor, as well as a home game with Kansas. Of the last four, the only game I see them winning is at home against Texas Tech. It’s looking like they are going to need a run in the Big 12 tourney just to stay in the discussion. A shame, considering they started the year 14-1 (1-0). However, the only non-conference win of note was Ohio State at Madison Square Garden, and even that is not a spectacular win this year.
West Virginia 18-8 (8-6 Big East): RPI: 35, SOS: 43. Quality wins: vs. Marquette. Bad losses: vs. Cincinnati.
West Virginia has won and lost the games they were supposed to, aside from the Marquette and Cincinnati games which cancel out. The problem for the Mountaineers could lie in the non-conference schedule. They had no quality wins, but they did play Tennessee and Oklahoma. No shame in losing to those two, but I think Bob Huggins needed a little more beef in the non-conference schedule this season. In conference, WVU has basically taken care of business. I feel they must win at DePaul on Wednesday and St. John’s on March 8. Stealing a game against UConn on the road, or Pitt at home would be big. This team is hard to figure out and they should be a very interesting case come Selection Sunday.
Pittsburgh 18-8 (7-7 Big East): RPI: 26, SOS: 23. Quality wins: vs. Duke (neutral), vs. Georgetown. Bad losses: vs. Rutgers.
The Panthers have lost four of six to fall onto the bubble. While they should still get in because of their quality wins and strong computer numbers, their chances are a lot less than they were two weeks ago. Pitt hasn’t won a game since Levance Fields came back, and I don’t feel that is a coincidence. When a guy has been out for so long, coming back can sometimes mess up a team’s rhythm. I feel that has happened with the return of Fields to the Pitt team. Once that adjustment period is over, however, the team and player usually get back to playing like they did before the injury. I think Pitt faces must win games at home against Cincinnati and DePaul. In between those games, they have two on the road at Syracuse and WVU. Gain a split there, in addition to the two home wins, and Pitt should be comfortably in the field of 65. Get swept on the road and finish at 9-9? Then I think Pitt must win at least one at Madison Square Garden. I’d say they’ll get in, but I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it just yet.
Villanova 17-9 (7-7 Big East): RPI: 50, SOS, 55. Quality wins: vs. Pittsburgh, @ Syracuse, vs. Connecticut. Bad losses: @ DePaul, @ Rutgers.
Villanova is an interesting case. The Cats had lost six of seven before winning three straight, including Saturday’s upset of UConn. At 7-7 in the Big East, Villanova is right there in the discussion. There isn’t much heft to the non-conference resume, but you could make a case that they should be 18-8 with a win over NC State. If you remember, a controversial call ended that game and gave the Wolfpack a one point win back in November. Similarly, a bad call gave Georgetown a win over Villanova two weeks ago. That call is different, because Georgetown still could have won the game in overtime. At the same time, Villanova could have as well. We’ll never know what would have happened, but it will be very interesting to see how the committee evaluates those two questionable calls, if at all. Nova should beat USF and Providence to close the season, so 9-9 is very attainable. A win tonight against Marquette or Sunday at Louisville would be huge.
Syracuse 17-11 (7-8 Big East): RPI: 48, SOS: 7. Quality wins: @ Villanova, vs. Georgetown. Bad losses: @ South Florida.
Despite the very strong SOS, Syracuse is in trouble. An under .500 record in conference, plus a resume devoid of quality wins (save for Nova and Gtown), means the Cuse is on the outside looking in right now. 2-1 down the stretch to get to 9-9 is absolutely essential. Of the remaining three games, none are easy. Pittsburgh is a desperate team, so despite hosting them at the Dome it will be a battle. Seton Hall will likely be 8-8 in conference on March 5 and desperate themselves, looking to get back into the at-large picture. Marquette is the best of the three teams Syracuse has left and they visit the Dome on March 8 to close the regular season. I could see Syracuse winning all three, or losing all three. The truth usually lies somewhere in the middle, but I see Syracuse going 1-2 down the stretch to finish at 8-10. The Orange are 4-7 on the road, have lost four of five, and are just 5-10 against the top 100. Besides the SOS, I don’t see how you can make a good case for them at this point in time. Syracuse also has a poor record against fellow bubble teams, and that could play a factor if they are deemed to be one of the last eight or so teams under consideration.
Ohio State 17-10 (8-6 Big Ten): RPI: 54, SOS: 40. Quality wins: vs. Syracuse (neutral). Bad losses: @ Iowa, @ Michigan.
Ohio State is 8-6 in conference, but the Big Ten is really down this year. Having lost four of six and 7 of 12, I don’t see Ohio State getting in. Road trips to Indiana and Minnesota will be difficult, as will home contests against Purdue and Michigan State. I’d say OSU will be lucky to split the remaining four games and finish at 10-8. With a resume that is really lacking in the quality win department, I don’t see how Ohio State gets in the field this year. In addition, they are 1-8 against the top 50, 5-7 on the road, and 4-8 against the top 100.
Virginia Commonwealth 21-6 (13-3 Colonial): RPI: 51, SOS: 150. Quality wins: vs. Maryland (neutral). Bad losses: @ Hampton, @ James Madison, vs. Old Dominion.
VCU has a strong record, but if you break it down they really don’t have much heft to the resume. Unfortunately they really can’t change that because of the conference they play in. They are 4-3 against the top 100 which is good, but three losses to teams with sub-100 RPI’s (sub-200 in James Madison’s case) will probably prevent them from making the tournament as an at-large. Of course, the CAA’s automatic bid is another way to get in, and they have a great chance of winning it.
George Mason 19-9 (11-5 Colonial): RPI: 69, SOS: 128. Quality wins: vs. Kansas State (neutral). Bad losses: vs. East Carolina (neutral), @ Georgia State, @ Delaware, @ UNC-Wilmington, @ Old Dominion, vs. UNC-Wilmington.
Wow, that’s a lot of bad losses. The only reason George Mason deserves a look is because of the marginal RPI. They are basically a fringe case, but as with VCU the conference’s automatic bid is there for the taking.
Houston 20-6 (9-3 C-USA): RPI: 63, SOS: 136. Quality wins: none. Bad losses: none.
Houston is a strange case because they have no quality wins or bad losses. Does the committee take a 20-6 team in a mid-major conference (ranked 10th)? Your guess is as good as mine.
UAB 19-8 (9-3 C-USA): RPI: 68, SOS: 130. Quality wins: none. Bad losses: vs. Georgia Southern (neutral), @ South Florida, @ Wichita State, @ Marshall, @ Southern Mississippi.
UAB did beat Houston, but there’s nothing on their resume to suggest they are NCAA worthy besides the close loss to Memphis. Too many bad losses have UAB just about out of the at-large conversation.
Kent State 23-5 (11-2 MAC): RPI: 29, SOS: 135. Quality wins: @ St. Mary’s. Bad losses: @ Detroit, @ Toledo.
Kent State will probably win the MAC Tournament, but just in case they don’t you have to take a look at their resume. Kent is 7-3 against the top 100, a mark that should get them in the field alone. They picked up their marquee win at St. Mary’s late Saturday night, they have a non-conference RPI of 19, and a road/neutral record of 8-5. Despite the two bad losses (one was the first game of the season), I think Kent State has done enough to get in. Getting to the MAC Tournament finals should put them in good position for a bid.
Illinois State 19-8 (11-5 MVC): RPI: 42, SOS: 81. Quality wins: none. Bad losses: @ Eastern Michigan, @ Northern Iowa, @ Indiana State.
Another team victimized by a bad conference, Illinois State is squarely on the bubble. They are 6-6 against the top 100 and have a decent RPI, but the bad losses are concerning. You could go either way with this team, but I have them out as of now. Winning at home against Creighton is essential, and then an opportunity for a solid road win presents itself at Southern Illinois on Saturday.
UNLV 19-6 (9-3 MWC): RPI: 32, SOS: 84. Quality wins: vs. BYU. Bad losses: @ Air Force.
UNLV is probably going to get in, but finishing 12-4 in conference would be a good idea. Home games against SDSU, TCU, and Utah give them the opportunity to do so. A big bubble road game at New Mexico on March 4 is an opportunity to clinch a bid with a road win in a very tough place to play. UNLV’s computer numbers are good, they’re 5-5 against the top 100, and above .500 on the road. They’re on the right side of the bubble at this point.
New Mexico 22-6 (9-4 MWC): RPI: 44, SOS: 149. Quality wins: none. Bad losses: @ New Mexico State, @ TCU.
After starting 3-4 in league play and taking themselves off the bubble, Steve Alford’s team has rebounded to win six in a row in order to get back in the at-large discussion. The game against BYU tomorrow night provides the Lobos a chance to get a much needed quality win. The loss at New Mexico State can be softened a little because it’s a rivalry game, but they need something to cancel out the loss at TCU. After BYU, the Lobos host UNLV in the Mountain West bubble fest. New Mexico should win at Colorado State to close the season, so 3-0 down the stretch would put them in very good position to earn a bid. Even 2-1 would be alright, but they must at least split the two big home games.
Arizona State 17-9 (7-7 Pac 10): RPI: 70, SOS: 79. Quality wins: vs. Xavier, vs. Arizona, @ Arizona, vs. Stanford. Bad losses: vs. Illinois (neutral), @ Nebraska, vs. Washington.
ASU is a strange team. After losing five straight to drop to 4-5 in league play, the Sun Devils beat Arizona on the road and Stanford at home to climb back over .500. They followed that up by losing to California at home and Washington State in Pullman. They are back to .500 with their next two games against the LA schools. Splitting those games would be big, winning both would make them a lock for the tournament, provided they don’t slip up in their last game at Oregon State. If they go 2-1 in the next three (vs. UCLA, vs. USC, @ Oregon), they will definitely get in the tournament. 1-2 would probably be fine, but not assured. 0-3 means they must win at Oregon State and get at least one in the Pac 10 Tournament.
California 15-10 (6-8 Pac 10): RPI: 76, SOS: 46. Quality wins: vs. USC, @ Washington State, @ Arizona State. Bad losses: vs. Utah.
Cal is in trouble with very mediocre computer numbers and record, but there are some quality wins on the resume. Sweeping the Washington schools at home and splitting at the LA schools is probably what they need to do, barring a significant run in the Pac 10 Tournament. A 6-10 record against the RPI top 100 is hurting them.
Kentucky 15-10 (9-3 SEC): RPI: 65, SOS: 19. Quality wins: vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Tennessee, vs. Arkansas. Bad losses: vs. Gardner Webb, vs. San Diego.
Perhaps the most interesting case of all the bubble teams is Billy Gillispie’s team. Kentucky finished the non-conference schedule at 6-7, but they have gone 9-3 in the SEC to get to 15-10 overall. The SEC is down, but it’s hard to exclude a 9-3 team from a major conference. If Kentucky can get to 18-11 (12-4), they’ll have a chance as the SOS is working for them. They should beat Mississippi and Florida at home, but they have two tough road games at Tennessee and South Carolina sandwiched in between the home games. Winning at Tennessee would probably clinch a bid, but they need to avoid the loss at South Carolina. Despite their bad RPI, SC is never easy to beat at home. If UK finishes 11-5, they probably need to win a game or two in the SEC Tournament. At 12-4, it’s awfully hard to deny them a bid, especially if they win a game at the conference tournament. Kentucky is only 3-8 against the top 100 right now, so that will certainly go against them. A 3-6 road record also hurts.
Florida 20-7 (7-5 SEC): RPI: 60, SOS: 115. Quality wins: vs. Vanderbilt. Bad losses: vs. Florida State, vs. LSU.
The defending champs are only 3-6 against the top 100 and have a non-conference RPI/SOS of 99/294. That’s pretty bad, and 7-5 in the SEC this year isn’t exactly spectacular. Two questionable home losses have prevented the Gators from being 22-5 (8-4), which would be a great position. Bad computer numbers are also going against them, so I imagine Billy Donovan’s team needs to finish at least 9-7 to have a chance at a bid. The remaining schedule is not easy, as Florida visits Georgia on Wednesday before returning home to face Mississippi State and #1 Tennessee. They conclude the regular season at Kentucky, which will likely be a huge game for both teams. Florida needs a split over the last four to get to 9-9 in the league, then they probably need to win two games in the SEC Tournament to feel safe. If they only get one, they will be sweating it out on March 16.
South Alabama 20-5 (14-2 Sun Belt): RPI: 24, SOS: 111. Quality wins: vs. Mississippi State, @ Western Kentucky. Bad losses: @ North Texas, @ Middle Tennessee.
South Alabama is a very good team in a bad league. With an RPI of 24, they are probably in the field. The win at Mississippi State is the marquee non-conference performance. USA is 3-3 against the top 100, a good record for a mid-major that doesn’t have the opportunity to play many good teams. They are 8-5 in road/neutral games and have a non-conference RPI of 37. At 14-2 in league play, I feel South Alabama would receive a bid as long as they reach the Sun Belt Tournament finals. I think they’ll win the league, but they should at least get to the finals if they want to feel safe.
Western Kentucky 20-6 (14-2 Sun Belt): RPI: 53, SOS: 145. Quality wins: none. Bad losses: @ Northern Arizona.
With only one bad loss, Western Kentucky is in the conversation. However, they were swept by South Alabama, not a good sign for an at-large candidate in a mid-major conference. They had three opportunities in non-conference play, coming close against Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Southern Illinois. While there’s no shame in that, they failed to pick up a quality win over that stretch of games. All of their wins are against teams with RPI’s over 100, as they are 0-5 against the RPI top 50. I think they really needed to beat South Alabama at home last week, and they probably need to win the conference tournament in order to get into the NCAA Tournament. They’re a good team, but they really haven’t proven it to the nation.
