Super Saturday

The final Saturday in the college basketball regular season usually provides us with a lot of drama. This year looks to be no exception.

Game of the day: #1 North Carolina at #6 Duke 9pm/ESPN

For the final week of the season, the Tar Heels are back to where they started the season: the #1 spot in the rankings. The Carolina defense is suspect, but this team puts up points faster than any team in the nation. Duke won the first edition of college basketball’s greatest rivalry for 2008, but they have been shaky of late. With Ty Lawson back, I think North Carolina finds a way to win at Cameron Indoor to validate the #1 ranking.

Big East Decider: #12 Louisville at #11 Georgetown 12pm/CBS

Louisville won the first meeting, a defensive struggle which saw Rick Pitino break out an all white suit for the school’s “white out” event. The ‘Ville has won nine games in a row since losing to UConn on January 28, making them one of (if not the) hottest teams in the country. Of Louisville’s six losses, four of them have come on the road or at a neutral site (BYU, Purdue, Seton Hall, UConn). I picked the Hoyas to win the Big East over Louisville when the season started so I can’t go back on that now. Expect this game to be played in the 50s with neither team getting into a groove offensively. Low scoring slugfest type games usually favor the home team. I don’t think this game will be an exception. Georgetown will take the Big East regular season title around 2pm.

Teams that would be well advised to win:

West Virginia- The Mountaineers can finish at 11-7 in the Big East with a win at St. John’s. This could be an ugly game with bad shooting on both sides, but WVU should win. Don’t discount St. John’s though, as they face what amounts to a must-win situation in order to qualify for the Big East Tournament.

Miami- I think the ‘Canes are in, but a loss at Florida State today could cause some anxiety. I expect that to happen.

UAB- The Blazers are in with a win at Memphis. It’s as simple as that. Will it happen? Nope.

Baylor- A tough game at Texas Tech closes the regular season for the Bears. I think they’re on the good side of the bubble, but a win here could all but lock up a bid. Texas Tech is as unpredictable as they come, so your guess is as good as mine in this one.

St. Joe’s- A huge win over Xavier on Thursday cured a bit of the trouble started with a home loss to Temple last Sunday. Winning at Dayton today would put them on the good side of the bubble at 10-6 in the A-10.

Dayton- They must beat St. Joe’s to stay in the NCAA picture. Period.

Oklahoma- Must avoid the bad home loss to Missouri. It shouldn’t be a problem, but you never know in the Big XII.

Mississippi- Playing at Georgia is never easy, and the Rebels must win this game to have any chance at a bid. 7-9 in the SEC is probably not enough, but they would have 21 wins overall with a win here. A run in the SEC Tournament could put them back in the mix, but they have to win this game first.

Kansas State- Beasley’s team is slowly (and quietly) drifting towards the bubble. It’s never a sure win when playing Iowa State in Ames, so KSU needs to put forth a solid effort to get the win. It won’t be a walk in the park. They’re in for sure with a win, but they become questionable with a loss. Will 19-11 (9-7) be enough? 9-7 in the Big XII this year is very good (top rated conference in RPI), but I think they’ll need at least one at the conference tournament just to be sure. So the plan for Kansas State is simple: one win (today or next week) and they’re in.

Syracuse- The Orange got a possibly season-saving win at Seton Hall on Wednesday, now they need to follow that up with a strong performance at home against a good Marquette team. Marquette can’t get a Big East Tournament bye, so all they’re playing for is NCAA seeding. This is a great opportunity for Syracuse to get to 9-9 in Big East play, and I like them at home in this one. Still, they’ll need a win or two in New York next week.

Texas A&M- The Aggies can clinch a bid with a win over Kansas today, but a loss (more likely) would drop them to 8-8 in Big XII play. With 22 wins overall, they’re probably in. However, a lot of those wins were against not-so-great competition.

Arizona State- Please don’t lose to Oregon State. Just don’t. That would be bad and embarrassing.

Arkansas- The Hogs need to avoid the bad home loss to Auburn, but I think they’ve done enough to get in even if they lose. Why make it a tougher decision though? Win.

Rhode Island- Another team facing a must win. Rhody has to beat Charlotte at home just to get to 8-8 in the A-10. From there, they’ll need at least two wins at the conference tournament just to have a chance. A good non-conference season has been destroyed by horrible play down the stretch.

Villanova- Villanova faces a suddenly tougher game at a rejuvenated Providence team tonight. With a win, the Wildcats get to 9-9 in the Big East with a chance to make the NCAA’s. A loss drops them to 8-10 and then they’re probably done.

Houston- They absolutely must win at UTEP. That’s not easy, but they have to do it in order to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon- Oregon faces a shaky Arizona team at home tonight. They’re favored, but I think Arizona will come to play. A win gets the Ducks, left for dead a week ago, back to 9-9 in the Pac 10 and right in the middle of the at-large discussion.

Arizona- The ‘Cats are a very interesting case. A win probably seals a bid because of their strength of schedule and a 9-9 conference record, but a loss makes things interesting. I think they’d get in at 8-10, especially given how weak the bubble is and how good their SOS is, but you’re always playing with fire when you go under .500 in the league. If they lose to Oregon, they better win a game or two in Los Angeles next week.

Creighton- Beating Drake in the MVC semis will turn some heads and possibly get them back into the discussion 22-9. Of course, Creighton could beat Drake and then win the MVC Tournament and get in anyway.

Virginia Commonwealth- VCU would fall onto the bubble with a loss to Towson in the Colonial quarters. They better not let that happen.

Seton Hall at St. John’s

March 1, 2008

Carnesecca Arena, Queens, NY 4:00pm

TV: MSG, Kenny Albert (play-by-play), John Celestand (color).

All statistics noted include Big East games only.

The Pirates look to make it three straight (two on the road) wins as they take the bus ride over to Queens on Saturday to face the St. John’s Red Storm. The Johnnies (10-17, 4-11) are coming off a 64-52 loss at Georgetown on Wednesday. Just today, coach Norm Roberts was assured he will be the coach of the Storm next season.

St. John’s is led by Anthony Mason Jr and Justin Burrell, their only two double digit scorers. Mason has had a terrific Big East season, putting up 15.2 ppg while pulling down 5.6 rpg. He’s also a good three point shooter (35.2%). Burrell has turned out to be a great signing for Norm Roberts. The freshman is averaging almost 12 ppg in conference play while grabbing the same amount of rebounds as Mason (5.6). Seton Hall will need to key on these two players and keep them in check if they hope to win. D.J. Kennedy, Sean Evans, and possibly Tomas Jasiulionis will also see time in the frontcourt for Coach Roberts.

The Johnnies have a thin but somewhat talented backcourt. Larry Wright is their best shooter (connecting on 37.7% of his three point shots), Eugene Lawrence and Malik Boothe dish out almost three assists a game each, and Paris Horne can come off the bench and provide good three point shooting.

St. John’s is a team that will play a tough, grind it out style. Often difficult to watch on offense, the Red Storm will miss a ton of shots but they do play tough physical defense. Seton Hall has to be careful if they get caught in a slow physical game because that means a lot of halfcourt sets, something the Pirates are not very effective in. I expect Coach Gonzalez to press early and often, trying to speed up the tempo of the game and get some easy baskets. If Seton Hall scores 70 points, they should win this game fairly easily as St. John’s simply can’t get to that point very often. In fact, St. John’s has broken 70 points only three times in conference play, and two of those were the first two games of the season. As long as Seton Hall plays an efficient game on offense and an average game on defense, they will win.

Seton Hall 72, St. John’s 63

Seton Hall at South Florida

February 26, 2008

Sun Dome, Tampa, FL 7:00pm

TV: ESPN360, Al Keck (play-by-play) and Marc Wise (color).

All statistics noted include Big East games only.

Seton Hall heads back out on the road when they travel to Tampa to face the South Florida Bulls on Tuesday night. First year coach Stan Heath’s team is led by 6-9 senior center Kentrell Gransberry. A transfer from LSU, Gransberry has become one of the better players in the Big East since his arrival in Tampa. He is averaging 18.5 ppg and 11.4 rpg while making 54.3% of his field goals. However, Gransberry’s weakness is at the free throw line. His FG% is actually higher than his FT% (53.2%), and the Pirates should look to use all 15 of their big men’s fouls on Gransberry. In the backcourt, freshman sensation Dominique Jones is the star. Jones has put up 16.5 ppg this season, much like Eugene Harvey did for Seton Hall last year as a freshman. Jones, however, has an outside shot and a better mid range game than Harvey. He doesn’t look to pass the ball as much as Eugene (only 2.4 apg), but that makes sense because he’s a shooting guard, not a point guard. Jones shoots very well from the floor, free throw line, and three point line. The other notable member of the USF backcourt is Jesus Verdejo. A junior guard out of Puerto Rico, Verdejo has quietly had a nice season. An excellent foul shooter, he is averaging almost 11 ppg in conference play. Chris Howard, Solomon Bozeman, Amu Saaka, and Aaron Holmes will also see time in the backcourt for Stan Heath. Howard is a good point guard, averaging 4.2 apg. Bozeman, Saaka, and Holmes should not be huge factors in the game, although Bozeman did have two good games at DePaul and vs. Syracuse.

Seton Hall will need to exploit South Florida’s weak free throw shooting by putting them, especially Gransberry, on the line. USF is second to last in the Big East in free throw shooting at 62.9%. They have trouble scoring, only putting up 64 points a game in conference play. The key for Seton Hall will be to execute on offense and play decent defense. As long as the Pirates have an average offensive game and play decent defense, they should win. Gransberry, Jones, and Verdejo are dangerous, but SHU did a great job defensively on Jones when the teams met on January 17 in Newark. South Florida is also second to last in turnover margin, something Seton Hall should be able to use to their advantage. Even without Paul Gause, the Pirates’ pressure should cause a lot of turnovers for USF.

After gaining some confidence by beating DePaul, the Pirates should come out ready to play. It is a road game however, and those are never easy in this league. USF has played fairly well at home recently, knocking off Syracuse and taking UConn right to the final buzzer. They’ll be ready, looking for revenge on Seton Hall. Unlike last year, Seton Hall has proven it can win road games against teams below them in the standings. I think they’ll continue that and pull out a close one in Tampa.

Seton Hall 71, South Florida 68

DePaul at Seton Hall

February 23, 2008

Prudential Center, Newark, NJ 8:00pm

TV: SNY, Jim Barbar (play-by-play) and Jack Armstrong (color).

All statistics noted include Big East games only.

Well this has to be rock bottom, right? Entrenched in a five game losing streak, the Seton Hall Pirates return to the Prudential Center for a Saturday night date with the DePaul Blue Demons, under the direction of coach Jerry Wainwright. DePaul, losers of six of their past seven games, enters the game with a record of 10-15 (5-8), tied with Seton Hall for 11th place in the Big East. If the season ended today, the Pirates would win the tiebreaker by virtue of their victory over first place Louisville. The highest place team DePaul has defeated was 10th place Villanova on the third of January, their first Big East game of the season. The winner of this game will move within 1.5 games of 7th place Pittsburgh and be almost assured of making the Big East Tournament next month. The loser will fall to 5-9, only one game ahead of 13th place St. John’s.

The star of this Blue Demons team is Draelon Burns. A 6-4 guard, Burns is having a terrific Big East season, averaging 15.8 ppg. He shoots only 36.7% from the floor and 22.7% from three point range, but this is mostly due to high amount of shots he attempts. Burns has attempted 57 more shots than his closest competitor, Dar Tucker. Seton Hall will have to keep him around his average in order to get the win. Will Walker, a considerably better shooter numbers wise, is the only other member of the Blue Demon backcourt averaging in double figures (10.4 ppg). Walker is not turnover prone (0.8 to/g), and shoots a good percentage from the three point line (41.9%) and the floor overall (46.7%). He will usually come off the bench for Jerry Wainwright. Cliff Clinkscales is DePaul’s point guard, averaging a very respectable 4.3 assists per game. A prototypical pass first point guard, Clinkscales will do his best to get his team going on offense. Jabari Currie will also see some time off the bench for DePaul.

Up front, DePaul has two very good young players in freshman center Mac Koshwal and fellow freshman forward Dar Tucker. Both were highly touted out of high school and haven’t disappointed. Koshwal is averaging 10.5 ppg while pulling down 8.4 rebounds, and Tucker is hitting for 12 ppg. Both have been steady performers all year long, but neither has had a true breakout game (Koshwal did have 15 rebounds against the talented frontcourt of Louisville). Seton Hall, with its thin frontcourt, will have its hands full with this talented duo. After that, Wesley Green provides a respectable 5.8 ppg and 5.9 rpg off the bench and Karron Clarke should see significant minutes. Matija Poscic plays only about 10 minutes per game and should be a non-factor.

DePaul is not the deepest team, but neither are the Pirates. Seton Hall will pressure a little bit, but the Blue Demons are a fairly good team when it comes to taking care of the basketball. They rank fourth in the Big East in turnovers, and sixth in turnover margin. In many ways, Seton Hall and DePaul are similar. Both have limited depth, rebounding difficulties, star guards (though DePaul only has one), they take good care of the basketball, and both play bad defense. I expect Seton Hall to come out with a sense of urgency, but do not underestimate DePaul as they will have something to play for as well. In a matchup of struggling teams, I usually give the edge to the home team. Seton Hall has the edge with better guards and the home crowd, while DePaul has a significant edge in the frontcourt. DePaul has played well at times on the road, even in their losses, and against great teams like Connecticut. I expect this game to be back and forth with neither team taking a significant lead. I will take Seton Hall in a close one because they have more talent in the backcourt and they are at home.

Seton Hall 76, DePaul 73

Seton Hall at West Virginia

February 17, 2008

WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV 2:00pm

TV: SNY, John Sanders (play-by-play) and Jack Armstrong (color).

All statistics noted include Big East games only.

Mired in a devestating and emotionally draining four game losing streak, the Seton Hall Pirates look to right the ship when they head to Morgantown, West Virginia on Sunday to face Bob Huggins’ West Virginia Mountaineers. WVU enters the game in 8th place in the Big East, with a record of 17-7 (6-5). They have alternated wins and losses in their last four games, with the last game being a win over Rutgers on Thursday night. WVU is 10-2 in the Coliseum, and 10-3 at “home” overall. The other loss came on December 29 to Oklahoma in Charleston, WV. Their two home losses at the Coliseum have come at the hands of Georgetown (one point), and Cincinnati (23 points). In the Cincinnati loss, WVU shot an abysmal 20% from the floor for the entire game, including 1-22 (4.5%) from three point range. That probably was an aberration, but West Virginia has cold shooting nights more often than you might think.

In the backcourt, senior point guard Darris Nichols runs the show. Nichols has put together a very nice Big East season, averaging 12.9 ppg, 2.9 apg, and only 1.3 turnovers per game. He is a good foul shooter (76.2%), and he can hit the three ball (38.5%). Nichols is a valuable leader for Bob Huggins as he can get the offense started while taking good care of the basketball at the same time. Alex Ruoff, a dead-eye three point shooter, will need to be defended extremely well by Seton Hall if they hope to get a win. Ruoff can bomb it from almost anywhere and hit with consistency (39.1%). Joe Mazzulla will see some time off the bench backing up Nichols at point guard.

The frontcourt is where the matchups get dicey for Seton Hall. 6-8 junior forward Joe Alexander is a freak athlete, and Seton Hall has nobody to adequately defend him. I imagine coach Gonzalez will go with a zone or throw Brian Laing on him when they play man-to-man to try to neutralize Alexander. Laing’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, so I expect Alexander to toy with Laing all day, taking him inside and outside. Newark native Da’Sean Butler will start at the other forward for Bob Huggins. Butler is similar to Alexander, as he can take his defender to the three point arc or in the paint. Butler shoots the three at a much better clip than Alexander (34.4%), so he will be another matchup nightmare for the small, undermanned Pirates. A versatile slasher, look for Butler to have a big day. Jamie Smalligan should start at center, but he usually plays less than 20 minutes a game. Smalligan, at seven feet tall, can even step out and occasionally knock down a three. Wellington Smith (Summit, NJ), coming off a 14 point, 8 rebound effort against Rutgers, will come off the bench along with John Flowers. Both of those players are 6-7, so Seton Hall will have a very difficult time dealing with the tall and deep front line of West Virginia.

For the Pirates, I feel Bobby Gonzalez has to go zone in order to make WVU beat them from the outside. The matchups in the frontcourt are terrible for the Hall, so I’d take my chances with a zone, even though WVU is a good outside shooting team. They have had a few clunkers, so I feel you have to take the risk and let them shoot it from deep. On offense, Brian Laing must have a big game. The senior cannot afford to have another 4-13 shooting night if the Pirates expect to pull off the upset. Turnovers will be key, as West Virginia is coming off a four turnover performance against Rutgers. I know the competition wasn’t great, but four turnovers against any Big East team is spectacular. For a team that lives off forcing turnovers, this is a bad sign for Seton Hall. At some point you figure Jeremy Hazell has to break out of his road shooting slump. Will this be the day? I hope so, but I don’t think anyone can predict it. Will the good or bad Jamar Nutter show up (assuming he plays)? Will Eugene Harvey play at the elite level we know he can, or will he be careless with the ball resulting in another high turnover number? Can Bobby Gonzalez count on any production from the frontcourt?

Horrible matchups in the frontcourt + four game losing streak + road game + quality opponent and great coach + no depth + too many question marks + the final grind of a brutal Big East conference schedule night in and night out = not much of a chance for Seton Hall.

West Virginia 85, Seton Hall 66

(NR-AP/#25-Coaches) Marquette at Seton Hall

February 12, 2008

Prudential Center, Newark, NJ 7:30pm

TV: SNY, Dave Ryan (play-by-play) and Eric Murdock (color). 

All statistics noted include Big East conference games only. 

Seton Hall looks to stop a three game losing streak and avenge an earlier loss to the Marquette Golden Eagles on Tuesday night at Prudential Center. Marquette, under the direction of ninth year head coach Tom Crean, enters the game with a 16-6 (6-5) record after losing two straight games to Louisville and Notre Dame last week. The Golden Eagles are led by dynamic point guard Dominic James (12.1 ppg, 3.8 apg) and forward Lazar Hayward (14.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg) who is having a breakout season. Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal make up the rest of the Marquette triumvirate in the backcourt that we hear so much about. Matthews has greatly improved his three point shooting in conference play, hitting those shots at a 44.0% clip. Maurice Acker and David Cubillan are adequate shooting guards that come off the bench for Coach Crean. This will be a homecoming game for Cubillan, who played his high school basketball at St. Benedicts which is just down the road in Newark. Dan Fitzgerald sees time off the bench on the wing, and Ousmane Barro should get the start at the center position. Fitzgerald, although only averaging 3.5 ppg in Big East play, is the kind of guy who always gives Seton Hall problems. Fitzgerald is fairly tall, so he will take his Seton Hall defender out to the three point line if the Pirates play man-to-man defense. If Bobby Gonzalez goes zone, Fitzgerald has the height to shoot over the Seton Hall guards. Fitzgerald is only shooting 29.0% from three in conference games, but he has the potential to “go off” in any game. Seton Hall must be aware of this and effectively guard against it in order to win. 

A key in this game will be the play of Eugene Harvey. The floor general has not played well in the past few games and the team has suffered because of it. A line of 12 points on 5-9 shooting, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists would suffice and put to rest some of the doubters. I don’t doubt Eugene as I saw what he could do last year and at times this year, but this is crunch time and he needs to step up.

It’s a good thing this game is at the Rock, because Jeremy Hazell can’t seem to find his shot away from home. Hazell made only one field goal in the Villanova game, but I think he’ll turn it around tomorrow night. Jamar Nutter has been Seton Hall’s most consistent perimeter shooter this year which makes the Pirates hard to beat when they are making shots from downtown.  

If Seton Hall gets good perimeter shooting and solid frontcourt play, they should win the game. Conversely, Marquette should be able to win if the Pirates revert back to the matador defense they played earlier this season. Even in Big East games, Seton Hall is last in the league in scoring defense, allowing 76.0 ppg to their opponents. The backcourt matchups in this game are pretty even, but I’d give Marquette the decided edge in the frontcourt with Hayward and Barro. If Brian Laing is guarding Hayward, expect Crean to have Hayward play more on the wing in order to get him some open looks. Laing is not a good defender, and he does not like to leave the post area on defense. I expect a hard fought game between two teams desperate for a win. The home crowd should be loud and give the Pirates an emotional boost, but I don’t think they have the horses to win a game against a gritty team who will make you grind it out or play a fast paced game. Marquette can adjust to either situation, and I feel Seton Hall doesn’t have the depth to win a close game against a quality opponent right now. 

Marquette 80, Seton Hall 77