This has to be rock bottom right? I don’t think it can get much worse than this. In a span of about three weeks, Seton Hall has gone from sky high, thinking about the NCAA Tournament, to rock bottom, thinking about just making the Big East Tournament. The latest setback, a 89-68 defeat at West Virginia on Sunday afternoon, makes it two uninspired efforts in a row. Coincidentally (or perhaps not, more on that later), both opponents scored 89 points.
With the loss, the Pirates have lost five straight games to fall into 12th place alone in the Big East standings. As you know, only the top 12 make it to Madison Square Garden in March. The Pirates hold a one game lead over 13th place St. John’s, and a one and a half game lead over 14th place Providence, plus a tiebreaker. With that in mind, it looks to be a five team race between Seton Hall, DePaul, Syracuse, St. John’s, and Villanova to avoid the dreaded 13th place. Some of you may wonder why I included Syracuse in there, but the Orange have a very difficult schedule down the stretch. There is a possibility that they may not win another game and finish at 7-11. Jim Boeheim’s team plays at Notre Dame, vs. Pittsburgh, at Seton Hall, and vs. Marquette to close the regular season. While they could win any one of those games, I’d say they have more than a 50% chance to lose all of them, save Seton Hall. Even in the Seton Hall game, I’d give Syracuse only a 55-60% chance to win. Villanova looks good for seven wins, if not eight or nine. They play West Virginia, UConn, Marquette, and South Florida at home, plus road contests at Louisville and Providence. I have been calling Villanova out all year as overrated, but they are slowly improving over the past few games. My money is on the Wildcats to finish at 9-9. This leaves Seton Hall, DePaul, and St. John’s.
SJU: vs. Marquette, at Georgetown, vs. Seton Hall, at Notre Dame, vs. West Virginia. I think the best case for the Johnnies is a 5-13 finish.
DePaul: at UConn, at Seton Hall, vs. West Virginia, vs. Notre Dame, at Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh. Best case in my opinion? 6-12.
Seton Hall: vs. DePaul, at South Florida, at St. John’s, vs. Syracuse, vs. Rutgers. Best case? 9-9.
Based on all of that, the Pirates should have no trouble making the Big East Tournament, provided they don’t totally collapse and there aren’t any upsets involving the other teams in the race.
Back to the game. As noted in the preview on this website, the matchups in the frontcourt heavily favored West Virginia. In the end, WVU’s forwards and centers outscored the Pirates’ frontcourt 46-23, with 21 of those points coming from Brian Laing. That is total domination, and clearly the missing link on this Seton Hall squad. Unless Bobby Gonzalez brings in a few quality frontcourt players, this story will be repeated next year. Seton Hall desperately needs Michael Glover to be declared eligible for next season, and to land Gary Flowers to establish some presence up front.
The one bright spot yesterday was freshman Jeremy Hazell going off for 30 points. Hazell had been a non-factor in every road game up until this point, it was great to finally see him get it going away from the Rock. We know what he can do, especially at home, now he needs to follow up this performance and become more consistent on the road. If you take Hazell’s 11-18 FG shooting out of the equation, Seton Hall’s guards shot just 6-23 (26.1%). That won’t get it done, much less on the road. Over the past five games (all losses obviously), Jamar Nutter is shooting only 13-42 (31%) from the field and averaging 8.0 points per game. Not terrible, but certainly not good. Below average in fact. Contrast that with the five game winning streak (22-42 (52.4%), 13.8 ppg), and you have one of the causes of this losing streak. Jamar Nutter stepped up very nicely in Paul Gause’s first absence, he has not so far the second time around. I’m not blaming it all on Jamar because there are many other problems with this team right now, but I expect a senior leader to step up and put the team on his back during tough times. It seems as if Jamar has just faded into the background for now. Maybe he will break out against DePaul on Saturday night.
However, the main problem for the Pirates over the past five games has been defense. Seton Hall is allowing opponents to score a disgusting 83.6 points per game on 144-307 (46.9%) shooting, compared to 70.6 ppg on 122-298 (40.9%) shooting during the winning streak. That is the root cause of Seton Hall’s five game losing streak. This can be due to a number of things, including fatigue, lack of effort, lack of defensive skill, and coaching. I happen to think it’s a combination of the first three, mostly fatigue. Despite Bobby Gonzalez’s claim that his team is among the best conditioned in the nation, they look very tired out on the court over the past few games. Fatigue leads to lack of effort and laziness, something we’ve seen a lot of particularly on the defensive end of the floor. This week of rest couldn’t have come at a better time for Seton Hall. If they rest up well and re-dedicate themselves on the defensive end of the floor (they have shown they can play average defense, and that’s all I’m asking for at this point), they should put together a solid last five games before the Big East Tournament. Before the year started, many fans said it was 9-9 or bust considering the schedule Seton Hall drew. It’s time to make that happen by winning four out of the last five games. Let’s get it done.